Kararehe Kino - Vertebrate Pest Research, Issue 17
February 2011 — Modelling Edition
In this issue
Ecological models – their form and function
Mention ecological modelling and many people run screaming in horror. Mandy Barron seeks to explain and encourage their wider use.
Predicting where and when possum browse will kill trees
Possums have been implicated as major drivers of the loss of biodiversity in forests in New Zealand.
Analysis of home-ranges of pigs assists in their eradication from Auckland Island
Pigs have been released on islands worldwide to provide food for castaways, hunters and as livestock. However, they are omnivores and consequently pose a serious threat to native flora and fauna.
Distribution modelling for managing sambar deer in Victoria
Sambar deer were released in the 1860s in Victoria, Australia, and have subsequently spread across much of the State. Such expansion is of concern because of the potentially negative impacts the deer may have on native biodiversity and agriculture.
Predicting the impacts of facial tumour disease on populations of Tasmanian devils
Wildlife diseases can lead to significant losses of individuals over short periods of time and may ultimately result in extinctions either directly or indirectly by making populations more vulnerable to other threats such as predation or habitat loss.
Can the possum fur industry contribute to possum control programmes?
Possums are killed as pests in official control programmes and also harvested as a resource by commercial operators seeking their fur and skins.
Restoring Ririwha (Stephenson Island)
Introduced rat species have significant impacts on seabird populations around the world through their predation on eggs and chicks. This is particularly so for breeding colonies on islands.
Start and stop rules in pest eradication
Eradication is usually the preferred option to manage pests because it (a) eliminates any future impacts, (b) may allow the damage from past impacts to ameliorate, and (c) does so at a one-offcost.
Incorporating uncertainty in modelling the probability of freedom of bovine tuberculosis
Eradication of disease from an area is a discrete event; it either occurs or does not (e.g. ‘heads’ in a coin toss). If we find a diseased animal, we know for certain that the eradication attempt failed.
What is the most cost effective path to TB freedom?
The current national bovine tuberculosis (TB) control strategy focuses on reducing and maintaining low possum densities in areas with infected livestock, and the testing and movement control of cattle.
The National Possum Model – involving more than 30 million individuals
The National Pest Management Strategy for bovine TB in New Zealand proposes three options for managing wildlife vectors: containment of the pests, rollback of the disease, and disease eradication.
Some recent vertebrate-pest-related publications.