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Future Scenarios for NZ: Urban Edition 2008

Why produce Future Scenarios in an Urban Edition?

The developed world is at a crossroad. The next 50 or so years will bring profound changes to our globally influenced society – climate change, population growth, food shortages, peak oil production, rationing of water and other key resources, re-localisation, and lifestyle simplification, perhaps? These are some of the more frequent keywords appearing on the Internet, in broadcast news, and in our conversations. They signal that significant changes may lie ahead. Our assumption, that urban development over the next half century will continue much as it has over the past century, will be significantly challenged.

As an 85% urbanised society, New Zealand will experience those challenges most acutely in our towns and cities – the places where most of us live and grow, work and play, fall in love and raise our families. The choices we make today about the design and form of our cities and smaller settlements will influence how they can function in the future. Ignoring the emerging possibilities of the future – that are faint signs today – could substantially impact on the sustainability, viability, and vitality of our urban settlements.

Urban form is flexible only in the longer term. Buildings, transportation networks, and utility systems are designed and built to last for decades. Changing them is not easy and it is expensive. Options exist to adapt to new circumstances, but each year decisions are made that bind land use or commit physical resources for decades ahead, particularly relating to energy. A systematic framework is needed to consider the sustainability of available options, and perhaps raise new options.

Future Scenarios – Urban Edition (from Landcare Research and University of Auckland) is an educational tool designed to help participants think about cities and their infrastructure, and how these would fare under different possible futures. Participants identify key drivers of urban change and then, working under four contrasting descriptions of possible futures, or 'scenarios', propose changes in urban form and land use planning for 'Central District' a imaginary district somewhere on New Zealand’s west coast. They evaluate the consequences their decisions have 20 or 50 years into the future, on a younger generation, as the different scenarios unfold and significant challenges arise from unexpected or random events ('wildcards') that may have far-reaching and broad-scale consequences. Wildcards illustrate aspects of current trends amplified or cumulatively passing thresholds, such as sudden geo-political or biological events. They show the need for flexibility and even redundancy in urban form to cope with stress, for example from rising rivers, falling power supplies or large population movements in short time frames.

Participants can then evaluate – in the comfort of the present – how well or how poorly their proposed decisions and planning actions might affect the well-being of those in the future. The four scenarios each have implications for sustainability and are designed to provide diversity, so each offers attractions to some sections of today's population, and problems for others (different winners and losers).

Ultimately, Future Scenarios – Urban Edition intends to create a discussion space where people can think, discuss, and debate more broadly, more laterally, creatively – and safely – and can also become familiar with the emerging tools of futuring, such as scenarios and back-casting, and the different way of thinking these require.

The game materials are published as PDF file downloads from the Landcare Research website. Future Scenarios – Urban Edition is based on the first version of the game (Future Scenarios – NZ Classic Edition 2007) which was designed for a national audience and without specific focus on issues of urban form and function.

Urban Edition

Welcome to the game. All files are in PDF format and will require you to have Adobe Acrobat software to view and print them.

These games are based around a series of cards that provide a framework for creative discussion on the future. You can either download all the game-cards as one PDF or download the card-types separately.

Please read (and keep a copy of) the relevant Facilitator's Guide before printing out the cards. This will give you a better idea of the number of cards you will need. When printing the cards, it is best to use a colour duplex printer, as the cards have a front and a back side. The pages are A4 size, but most card-types have more than one card per page, so you will need to cut some of them into individual cards. We recommend they are printed on thin card, rather than paper, for durability. You don’t have to print the whole set of each card-type, just enough for the number of participants and some spares.

For more detailed descriptions of the four scenarios, see Work in Progress: Four Scenarios for NZ (Edition 2), which is available from our mail-order bookshop.

Facilitator's guide (25KB)

All game cards, one file (2.08MB)

Download card types separately:

Contact us:

Please contact us if you have any problems/feedback. Email the team at scenarios@landcareresearch.co.nz or telephone Rhys Taylor direct on 03 960 2656.

Acknowledgement:

Future Scenarios- Urban Edition was produced by Landcare Research, with the assistance of the University of Auckland under subcontract to Opus Consultants as part of the Learning Sustainability Programme, funded by the Foundation for Research, Science and Technology (OPSX0303). For more information on the Learning Sustainability Programme visit: http://www.learningsustainability.org.nz