Global Change Processes
Introduction
Cattle
Landcare Research’s Global Change Processes scientists are working to ensure that New Zealand has strategies to manage the risks and respond to opportunities that climate change offers for the environment, the economy and society. Our research also develops ways to adapt these strategies in response to changing circumstances as the magnitude and impacts of global change are realized. A number of inter-related research programmes focus on reducing land-based greenhouse gas emissions.
Evidence for climate change and the impact of human activity on greenhouse gas emissions is now overwhelming. Reports such as the 2006 Stern Report and the 2007 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) report conclude that increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases resulting from human activity is the probable cause of rising global average temperatures, and that continued temperature increases will result in significant environmental, economic and social impacts.
Globally, levels of greenhouse gases (including carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide) in the atmosphere are currently equivalent to ~430 parts per million (ppm) CO2, in contrast to only 280ppm before the Industrial Revolution.
New Zealand’s greenhouse gas emissions are now 26% higher than in 1990, and are continuing to rise. New Zealand is committed, under the Kyoto Protocol, to reducing its greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels. Climate change has the potential to significantly impact on New Zealand’s unique natural environment and its multi-billion-dollar earnings from land-based exports. Impacts of a global change in climate may result in adverse effects such as an increase in invasive invertebrates, weeds and diseases. However, they may also generate opportunities such as economic returns from afforestation of marginal lands to offset greenhouse gas emissions.
Our research is developing a process-based understanding of the impacts of global change on land-based systems by providing:
- Data on all three of New Zealand’s major greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide)—a baseline for quantifying the impacts of human-induced climate variability and change, and measuring the success of land-based mitigation and adaptation strategies.
- New tools and technologies to increase the accuracy with which current emissions can be measured and verified, and future emissions and the impacts of mitigation strategies can be predicted. Examples include:
- NZ-DNDC model
- CenW model
- Micrometeorological measurement methodologies
- Spatial and temporal scaling of local measurements and estimates, to regional and national scales.
- Integrated assessment of the impacts of global change, to determine the potential environmental, economic and social consequences for New Zealand, and to inform Government policy decisions to maximise investment and minimise risk for the New Zealand economy.
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Research themes
- Agricultural greenhouse gas emissions, removals, and uncertainties
Primary contact: Johannes Laubach
Provision of robust methods, including micro-meteorological measurement techniques and modeling, to quantify and forecast emissions and removals of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) at local scales in relation to land use and land-use change. Data provided by this research can be used to determine the likely success of land-based emissions mitigation projects, and to reduce uncertainty in New Zealand's agricultural greenhouse gas inventories. - Biophysical responses of terrestrial systems to global change
Primary contact: Surinder Saggar
Scaling of plot-based (local) emissions to regional and national scales, and integration with land-use change, land management, and emerging mitigation risks and opportunities. This research will enable defensible, landscape-scale, multi-temporal forecasts of the consequences for greenhouse gas emissions and removals. - Carbon exchange and inventory
Primary contact: Ian Payton
Quantifying and forecasting terrestrial-based sources and sinks of carbon dioxide (CO2), the effects of land-use change and management on soil carbon and land-atmosphere CO2 exchange. This research enables more accurate estimates of New Zealand's NET greenhouse gas emissions and, through Landcare Research's EBEX21® and carboNZero programmes, helps businesses and landowners to measure, manage and mitigate CO2 emissions. - Integrated assessment of impacts, adaptation and mitigation
Primary contact: Suzie Greenhalgh
Development of knowledge, networks and strategies to embed mitigation and adaptation practices into economic and sustainable development initiatives at community, regional and national levels. Integrated assessment, in collaboration with other providers, will enable key decision-making agencies to plan appropriate policy for New Zealand's economic and social responses to global change. - Nanotechnology applications
Primary contact: Guodong Yuan
Development of nanomaterials with properties designed specifically for a range of potential applications for environmental improvement. Our staff are internationally recognised, and are building New Zealand’s capability in the rapidly advancing field of nanotechnology. - New technologies for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions
Primary contact: Adrian Walcroft
Research to understand the processes that regulate emissions and removals of nitrous oxide and methane, including measurement and modelling, to develop novel mitigation technologies, and estimation of potential of efficacy of mitigation strategies such as nitrification inhibitors. - Risks and impacts of global change on terrestrial ecosystems
Primary contact: David Whitehead
Identification of the impacts of global change on the biophysical functioning and resilience of natural and managed terrestrial systems. In this research we increase understanding of the processes regulating the function of terrestrial ecosystems under climate change and the consequences of, and sensitivities to, global change. Results provide process-based underpinning for models to predict ecosystem responses to climate change, including feedback effects on adaptability, acclimation and resilience.
Research collaborations
The Global Change Processes Team works collaboratively with colleagues whose expertise complements our own, to bring together the best research team for specific projects. Our New Zealand collaborators include the Crown Research Institutes NIWA, AgResearch, Scion, and Plant and Food Research, and Lincoln, Canterbury and Massey Universities. We also collaborate widely with international environmental researchers at, for example, the Macaulay Land Use Research Institute, Aberdeen, Scotland, University of Sydney, Auatralia, and a global network of researchers using the DeNitrification DeComposition (DNDC) model.
Tools & Services
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Carbon calculator
A tool for users to examine the potential viability of “carbon farming” -
EBEX21®
Emissions/Biodiversity Exchange in the 21st century. Generate carbon credits from forest regeneration projects.
Science leader
 | David Whitehead Email  |
Landcare Research | |
Phone: 03 321 9999 |