Designing for the future
To plan strategically for New Zealand’s future, the future must first be imagined. This means more than simply projecting past trends forwards. Landcare Research has been working with stakeholders in central and local government and in business to help them determine their path to a sustainable future.
Through discussions with United Kingdom futures researchers and New Zealand thinkers from government agencies, universities and the commerce sector, Landcare Research constructed four “scenarios” for New Zealand’s next 50 years. These scenarios are based on divergent political, economic and environmental trends. Although fictional, the seeds for each are present in New Zealand today. Over the past financial year these four scenarios have been developed into more robust qualitative texts for possible futures, and have captured the imagination of diverse audiences throughout the country.
The key questions entailed in these projects are pivotal to a long-term approach to sustainable development: how can we meet our needs today, without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their needs, and how will New Zealand’s government and business sectors cope with external pressures such as trade barriers, climate change, peak oil, pandemics and the like? The emphasis is not on short-term or economic gain, but on strategic thinking that recognises that natural resources are finite. This approach is essential to ensure the long-term viability of our economic and social systems.
This year, the scenarios were the subject of a book, and turned into a screenplay for inclusion in a book on New Zealand identities. It was also developed as a “game” – a discussion and networking tool for groups interested in enhancing their understanding of what the future could bring to them and how they may influence it.
Presentations and workshops using the game were given to audiences from The Treasury, the Ministry for the Environment, the Ministry of Social Development, the State Services Commission, the Department of Labour, the Tourism Industry Association of New Zealand (TIANZ), and other groups including community groups, Auckland’s urban youth, and local government in Northland and Coromandel, plus media briefings and various continuing education talks.
Landcare Research staff working in this field have been delighted at the number of organisations interested in discussing the use of futures planning, and using the scenarios to help assess their own planning, opportunities and risks. Many were also interested in modifying the scenarios to fit their own situation. These ongoing relationships have led to other opportunities including work for the Asia:New Zealand Foundation on the impacts of long-term resource competition, and to work through Booz Allen Hamilton with the Ministry of Transport on long-term futures for transport in New Zealand. Also, agencies including the Public Health Association, TIANZ and Local Government New Zealand are seeking to use it in national conferences. Landcare Research has also provided facilitation for the Department of Labour’s “Future of Work” programme.
Regional futures projects are also underway. These include spatial modelling to help understand future scenarios for the Waikato Region, in partnership with Environment Waikato, AgResearch, the New Zealand Centre for Ecological Economics, NIWA, Scion, the University of Waikato, the University of Versailles (France) and the Research Institute for Knowledge Systems (The Netherlands). Others include a strategic project for Auckland Region, looking 100 years into the future, and research into Canterbury’s long-term future, particularly regarding water resource management.
Summary of drivers
| Governance | Identity and social cohesion | Technology choices and impacts | Resource base | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| THE SHIRE |
Participatory Democracy (MMP); Monthly referenda; Decentralised |
Community oriented; Consensus-building; Deliberative, inclusive |
Educational services; New technology caution |
Growing use of renewable resources; Resource taxes high |
| LIVING ON No.8 WIRE |
Representative Democracy; Pluralist |
Pragmatic; Plain; Task-focused |
“She’ll be right” “I can fix this” |
Depleted resources; Resource taxes low to moderate |
| NEW FRONTIERS |
Technology; Mercantilist with significant structural change |
Individualistic; Independent; Success-seeking |
Driven by global market forces; Adopt what’s available, uncritically |
Resource taxes low |
| FRUITS FOR A FEW |
Representative Democracy; Centralised / factional; Low participation rates |
Fierce competition Winner Takes All; Distinct underclass |
Wealth creation | Privatised control and ownerships; Resource efficiency; Resource taxes moderate |
The Asia:NZ Foundation recognises that along with trends
such as economic and population growth in the Asian region
it is important to look also at natural resource usage and
environmental trends. We came to this realisation not only from
the global concern around resource use and environmental
problems but also because the majority of New Zealand’s
exports are derived from an agricultural basis. Therefore, we
need to look at natural resource use to determine where in the
future there will be shortages or surpluses and then where New
Zealand needs to work to build export capability.
The resource and environment project is part of a wider programme examining what we have termed “megatrends” in the Asian region. Looking into the future is important because most of us only have time to deal with current issues on a dayto- day basis, or at the most we might look out 5 years, but if we are to transform New Zealand we need to look at what we will deal with over a much longer time frame, so that we can build appropriate capacity and capability now. Asia:NZ argues that this capacity and capability building must include forming deeper relationships with Asia and raising knowledge of Asia and its people in New Zealand itself.
Dr Rebecca Foley,
Director, Research & Policy,
Asia:NZ Foundation
I roto i tēnei ao hurihuri e para nei ki mua, mā te tangata tonu e whakaaro ake me pēhea te haere tōtika. Kei te kaha piki haere te mōhiotanga o ngā iwi ki te hoe i o rātou ake waka i roto i tēnei ao. Kua whiwhi pūtea, kua haere ki ngā kura tuarua, tuatoru rānei, kua whātoro atu ki ngā rākau a te Pākeha, ā, kua riro i a rātou te pōtae e mau ana. Ko te mea nui, kia tarea e rātou te mahi i ēnei mahi i raro o te maru o koro mā o kui mā. Arā, kia mau ki te tūturutanga o te tikanga, o te pono, o te māramatanga.
Talk to us |
Funding |
| Bob Frame Tel 03 321 9673 
|
FRST, MfE, Asia:NZ Foundation |
References |
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Work in progress: Four futures for New Zealand. Frame B, Taylor R, Delaney K. 2005. Manaaki Whenua Press, Lincoln. New Zealand Identities. Liu JH, Mccreanor T, Teaiwa T, eds, 2005. VUW Press, Wellington. |
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